Wednesday, January 30, 2008

State of the union: labor force participation fell sharply, median wages fell 1.4%, no current savings over 7 years, large deficit in adv. technology

The Economic State Of The Union -- 2008 | BY CHARLES McMILLION | cwm@mbginfosvcs.com

In just the past seven years, U.S. household debt almost doubled and federal debt soared by near two-thirds, rocketing by a combined $10.5 trillion. The total combined debt of households ($14.4 trillion) and the federal government ($9.2 trillion) is now 168 percent of GDP, far higher even than in the brief spike during World War II. All other levels and ratios of debt also have soared far beyond any past precedent.

Yet, this record-shattering explosion of debt stimulus created the weakest seven-year job growth (4.4 percent) and one of the weakest periods of real GDP growth (18.1 percent) since the Depression: less than 6 million new jobs ($1.8 million of debt per job) and a mere $4 trillion increase in GDP.
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... Locked into a failed, 30-year-old ideology of deregulation and debt, there is still no option to compete with the remarkably effective industrial and trade policies pursued by China and others.
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Record trade losses have accelerated the hollowing-out of the once dynamic U.S. economy. For the first time on record, in 2002 the United States lost its historic global trade surplus in advanced technology products (ATP). Worsening sharply, since 2004 the ATP deficit became larger than the U.S. trade surplus for intellectual property services, royalties and fees. That is, for the past four years the United States has a worsening combined deficit in technology goods and services. Technology no longer pays any part of the U.S. import bills for oil, cars, electronics and clothing, etc. China now accounts for half the U.S. manufacturing trade deficit and more than the entire deficit in technology.
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... since 2001 the labor force has grown more slowly (7.4 percent) than during any seven-year period since 1955 and participation rate of those in the labor force -- those working or looking for work -- also fell sharply -- from 67 percent to 66 percent.
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Median real wages have continued to decline, including by 1.4 percent over the past year. Median household real incomes fell 2.0 percent from 2000 to 2006 (latest data available) and even the average income fell 0.5 percent with inequality now the worst on records back to the 1960s. The total current savings of ALL households over the past three years is virtually nothing; by far the worst since 1933.

The foolishness of powerful, self-interested claims of a "new paradigm" is again exposed. The fantasy is that soaring debt and the loss of production through trade deficits are good things and the lack of current savings irrelevant. ....

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