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Today there is no evidence of job creation. Quite the opposite: unemployment is rising and millions of jobs have disappeared. In place of thrift we have become a nation of debtors, staggering beneath mortgages that exceed the value of our homes, and credit lines that exceed our ability to repay. But the “Great Recession” has also changed the nature of unemployment, making it harder for those out of work to find a job. Only by investing in infrastructure and innovation can we mend the system.
About a third of the 15m jobless have been out of work for at least six months. This is the highest proportion since records began in 1948. Meanwhile, those in jobs find their work week reduced to an average of 33 hours, again the lowest in 60 years. Firms are cutting hours, wages and benefits rather than laying off still more workers. Today all elements of labour income – jobs, hours and wages – are under pressure.
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The mix of the labour force has also changed. The proportion of over-55s working has risen 8 per cent. They felt forced to keep labouring away because the value of their homes and investments declined. In fact, 63 per cent of workers aged 50 to 61 expect to delay retirement, thus restricting openings for younger workers. During the last two recessions, those in their mid-40s to mid-50s showed employment gains, while younger workers bore the brunt of cutbacks.
Of course this time younger workers have not escaped – a quarter of teenagers, about 1.6m youths, are without work. The unemployment rate for young Americans has exploded to 52 per cent, a post-war high. But even the 45-to-54 age group has seen job losses, with employment down by more than 1.2m. These are people who should be in the prime of their wage-earning years. It will take these older workers longer to find jobs; some will have to settle for considerably less pay.
Another consequence of the prolonged recession is that many more men than women have lost jobs, probably because women are paid less. Women’s share of the workforce may have reached a record 50 per cent last month as a result.
Alas, the prospects for re-employment are diminished by the fact that many jobs may never come back, for example in finance and car manufacturing. This means growth alone will not fully employ America again. If there is any growth in jobs, it will come mostly from healthcare, education, restaurants and hospitality services. Healthcare alone made up all the net jobs created in the last decade. Such service jobs cannot, however, support growth and innovation.
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The official rate does not include 1m people who once worked in residential construction, where three-quarters of jobs have been lost. These people did not show up on the employment rolls when they were working, and do not show up on the unemployment rolls now they are out of work – but they are still (illegally) in the country. Nor does it include approximately 2m people who have entered the labour force since the recession began and are still without jobs. If it were not for short-time working, the same work could probably be done in the normal work week with 3.5m fewer staff, which would drive the unemployment rate up another 2.5 percentage points.
No wonder job anxiety has soared. Soaring unemployment numbers have undermined the confidence that we might be nearing the bottom of the recession. The outlook is bleak. If there is a recovery, firms will fill additional work loads by adding hours to the truncated work weeks.
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Only massive programmes are equal to the challenge of restoring stable growth to our economy. One such programme would be to establish a National Infrastructure Bank, advocated by prominent Democrat Felix Rohatyn, to which the government would assign the $65bn (£40bn, €45bn) annually allocated to support infrastructure construction nationally. The bank would have the capacity to borrow, with federal guarantees, an additional $200bn. This programme would ensure a rational rather than a political investment in infrastructure, and provide long-term infrastructure development on a major scale with a maximum multiplier effect on the economy.
A second programme would be a 100 per cent tax credit for increases in research and development by American businesses. In this way we could stimulate and incentivise the capacity for innovation and technical creativity and thus produce another Schumpeterian period of growth for America. There is no time to lose.
The writer is editor in chief of US News & World Report and chairman and co-founder of Boston Properties
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