It was another week of mixed news on the job front, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly report released this morning offered another disappointment despite an unexpected drop in the official unemployment rate. The seasonally adjusted figures showed a loss of 20,000 nonfarm employment for January. Employment fell in construction, transportation and warehousing. Temporary help services, health care and retail trade added jobs.
Revisions raised the job gains in November from 4000 reported last month to 64,000 and boosted the job losses for December from 85,000 to 150,000. The loss in jobs for January was well within the lowest range predicted by experts surveyed by Bloomberg last Friday. The official "U3" unemployment rate, however, fell to 9.7%. The "U6" unemployment rate - an alternative BLS measure that includes some but not all discouraged workers and part-time workers who want full-time jobs - fell to 16.5%.
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Today's benchmark adjustment has been added to this now-famous graphic at Calculated Risk, showing just how bad the Great Recession has been compared with previous post-World War II downturns.
Given the three-week surge in first-time unemployment benefit claims and an upturn in the number of predicted layoffs, the first question is whether today's weak news will repeat next month. While various other reports - factory orders, chain-store retail sales, the very healthy ISM manufacturing report - show growth on the rise, which normally would generate more jobs, contrary signs are making investors wary. One of those was the employment index in the ISM non-manufacturing report. While the index rose a point to 44.6%, anything under 50% means businessses are still in cutting mode. Even The Wall Street Journal was recommending 24 hours ago that everyone Digest the Jobs Report With a Grain of Salt. ...
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