This post originally appeared at The Huffington Post, Robert Scott is Senior International Economist and Director of International Programs, Economic Policy Institute. It is posted as part of our series, Is Manufacturing Making It?
Some bloggers have suggested that manufacturing is doing well, just because output has grown for the past few months. One sets up a straw man in a piece title "No, Virginia, U.S. Manufacturing isn't dead," but no serious economist claims that manufacturing is dead. Manufacturing employed 11.5 million workers in January, 2010, 8.9% of U.S. non-farm employment. However, nearly 6 million manufacturing jobs have disappeared since 1998, and manufacturing's share of GDP has fallen by a similar share in that time. The Bonddag blog and many others claim that productivity growth is responsible for manufacturing job loss, but they've got it wrong. Growing manufacturing trade deficits from 1998 to 2006, and the worst recession since the 1930s are responsible for the vast majority of all manufacturing job loss. We can reclaim a large share of these jobs by shrinking the trade deficit and putting this recession behind us.
I explained the relationship between manufacturing output, productivity growth, trade deficits and job loss in my Snapshot on Manufacturing Job Loss: Productivity is not the culprit. It shows that productivity has always grown rapidly in manufacturing--there was no big upsurge in the past decade. The recent uptick in productivity occurred in other sectors of the economy, which does help explain why job growth economy-wide was so terrible in the Bush era, but that's another story. With manufacturing, the story is simple.
In the past, we had high growth in real output and high output growth in manufacturing leading to stable employment. Then, after 2000, productivity growth continued but output growth flat-lined and manufacturing employment collapsed. The reason: a soaring trade deficit in manufacturing products. People kept buying more manufactured goods; they just bought them from China and other exporters, not from U.S. manufacturers. Josh Bivens reviewed this history in his earlier Snapshot on Trade Deficits and Manufacturing Employment.
In the past, employment and the trade deficit in manufacturing were roughly stable for 30 years from the late 60s through the late 90s.* Then the Asian financial crisis hit in 1998. The value of the dollar soared along with the manufacturing trade deficit. Manufacturing employment fell like a rock, with a lag of about 2 years, as shown in the graph below. The manufacturing trade balance did start to improve in 2007, but the big drop in the deficit came in 2008 and 2009, and was caused by the recession. The recession was also responsible for the loss of about 2 million of the 5.7 million manufacturing jobs lost since 1998.
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